از دام توسیدید تا سیستم کنسرت؛ تحلیلی بر اینده روابط امریکا و چین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

گروه روابط بین الملل دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

این مقاله در پی پاسخ به این سوال بود که اینده روابط چین و امریکا چگونه خواهد بود؟ پاسخ به این پرسش از ان نظر حائز اهمیت بود که رقابت استراتژیک اینده در جهان میان این دو قدرت خواهد بود و فعل و انفعالات اینده جهان بشدت از کیفیت روابط این دو تاثیر می پذیرد. فرضیه مقاله که به روش توصیفی – تحلیلی بررسی شد آن بود که اینده روابط چین و امریکا می تواند در سه شکل درگیری نظامی(دام توسیدید) ، جنگ سرد جدید(دام چرچیل) ، و سیستم کنسرت ( وابستگی متقابل رقابتی) تجلی یابد. در این میان، با در نظر گرفتن نقش "کارگزاران سیاسی" و نقش "ساختار نظام بین الملل" در تعیین رفتار دولت ها، دام توسیدید بعنوان "سناریوی ممکن"، دام چرجیل بعنوان "سناریوی محتمل"، و سیستم کنسرت یا مدیریت مشترک بعنوان "سناریوی مرجح" در نظر گرفته شد. یافته مقاله نشان داد با انکه اراده کارگزاران سیاسی، انها را بسوی همکاری سوق می دهد اما الزامات ساختاری نیز ازادی عمل انها را برای همکاری محدود می کند. تحت این شرایط بنظر می رسد رهبران چین و امریکا احتمالا به دلیل پیامد های بسیار خطرناک ان، از دام توسیدید فرار خواهند کرد اما الزامات ساختاری مانع از حرکت انها به سمت سیستم کنسرت خواهد شد و لذا انها در دام چرچیل گرفتار خواهند شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

From Thucydides Trap to the concert system, an analysis of the future of US-China relations

نویسنده [English]

  • nozar shafiee

Department of International Relations, University of Isfahan

چکیده [English]

This article seeks to answer the question, what will be the future of China-US relations? The answer to this question is important from the point of view that the future strategic competition in the world will be between these two powers, and the future interactions of the world will strongly affect the quality of the relations between the two powers. The descriptive-analytical hypothesis of the paper is that the future of China-US relations could be manifested in three forms of military conflict (The Thucydides Trap), the new Cold War (Churchill's trap), and the concert system (competitive interdependence). Taking into account the role of "political agents" and the role of the "structure of the international system" in determining the behavior of governments, the The Thucydides Trap as a "possible scenario", the Churchill trap as a "probable scenario", and the joint concert or management system as The "preferred scenario" is considered. The findings show that while the will of political agents leads them to cooperate, structural requirements also limit their freedom of action to cooperate. Under these circumstances, it seems that the leaders of China and the United States will probably escape from the The Thucydides Trap due to their very dangerous consequences, but the structural requirements will prevent them from moving towards the concert system and therefore they will be trapped in Churchill's trap.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • The Thucydides Trap
  • Churchill trap
  • concert system
  • Cold War
  • strategic competition
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