آیندۀ روابط امریکا و چین: همکاری؛ رقابت

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دکتری روابط بین الملل دانشگاه آزاد واحد علوم و تحقیقات اصفهان

چکیده

خیزش چین به‌ عنوان قدرتی بزرگ در منطقه و جهان، قدرت هژمون ایالات متحدۀ امریکا را به چالش کشیده است. رویکرد اول، چین را به‌ عنوان تهدیدی خاموش برای منافع امریکا و آسیای شرقی و نیز رقیب قدرت امریکا در آینده می‌داند و خواهان جلوگیری از رشد چین و اعمال محدودیت‌های بیشتر بر این کشور است (تأکید بر قدرت سخت). رویکرد دوم، معتقد است که با درگیرکردن هرچه بیشتر چین در اقتصاد و جامعۀ جهانی و نهاد‌های چندجانبۀ مختلف می‌توان خیزش این کشور به سمت جایگاه قدرتی بزرگ را مدیریت کرد (موازنۀ قدرت نرم). دو کشور دو سیستم سیاسی و فرهنگی و ترکیب نژادی متفاوت دارند. آنها در مراحل متفاوتی از مدرنیته و توسعۀ اقتصادی هستند و 6000 مایل از یکدیگر فاصله دارند. یکی در قلۀ سلسله‌مراتب بین‌المللی است و دیگری به ‌سمت آن درحال‌صعود است. تاریخ نشان داده است که رقابت قدرت‌های بزرگ به جنگ گرم یا سرد منتهی می‌شود و پیش‌بینی‌های زیادی وجود دارد که این دو کشور نیز در این مسیر تراژیک گام برمی‌دارند. این دیدگاه‌ها به اختلافات دو کشور بر سر تایوان، حقوق بشر، تجارت، امور مالی، کنترل تسلیحات و امنیت منطقه‌ای اشاره می‌کنند. این دیدگاه‌ها معتقدند که هر دو کشور نیروی نظامی خود را برای رویارویی علیه یکدیگر آماده می‌کنند. اگرچه باید تأکید کرد که سیاست‌گذاران دو کشور، از سابقۀ تاریخی رقابت آلمان و بریتانیا و جنگ سرد میان اتحاد شوروی و امریکا آگاهی دارند. برخورد دو کشور با توجه ‌به وابستگی متقابل اقتصادی برای هر دو کشور بسیار وحشتناک است. از طرفی، بازدارندگی تسلیحات هسته‌ای دورنمای برخورد تمام عیار میان دو کشور را کاهش می‌دهد. با این ‌وجود، روابط آیندۀ این دو کشور روی طیفی از همکاری و رقابت قرار دارد و درصورت رسیدن چین به میزان قدرت امریکا پتانسیل برخورد سیاسی یا حتی نظامی نیز زیاد می‌شود. با توجه ‌به خیزش چین به‌ عنوان قدرتی جهانی و امریکا به‌ عنوان ابرقدرت حال حاضر، کیفیت روابط آیندۀ چین و امریکا چگونه است؟ آیا روابط دو کشور بر اساس همکاری متقابل و هم‌گرایی و ثبات و صلح شکل خواهد گرفت یا با زوال روابط دو کشور به ‌سمت افزایش رقابت و شاید حتی برخورد و جنگ منتهی خواهد شد؟نگارندگان با استفاده از دیدگاه‌های متنوع در موضوع روابط آیندۀ ایالات متحدۀ امریکا و چین تلاش می‌کنند تا با پاسخ همه‌جانبه به پرسش‌های مطرح شده، به فرضیه‌ای بینابینی دست یابند. آیندۀ روابط چین و امریکا از برخورد بین دو مجموعه از نیرو‌های مخالف تعیین می‌شود، دو جهت مخالف که از قدرت نسبتاً مساوی برخوردارند. در آینده، اساس روابط چین و امریکا با کمی نوسان و با تغییرات تناوبی، به‌ طرف همکاری بیشتر یا رقابت افزون‌تر بدون تمایل قطعی به یکی از دو جهت و برخورد نظامی باشد.

در این پژوهش، با رویکردی کثرت‌گرا، روش پژوهش کیفی را ملاک قرار داده‌ایم. پژوهش کیفی بهره‌گیری از ترکیبی از روش‌های کیفی است. روش پژوهش کیفی مستلزم نوعی تکثر روشی است. پژوهشگر کیفی در کار خود هر گونه استراتژی و روش یا مواد تجربی دردسترس را به‌ کار می‌گیرد. برخلاف تصور رایج، روش کیفی به‌هیچ‌وجه به‌معنای استفاده‌نکردن از داده‌های کمی نیست، همان‌طورکه در این پژوهش، از داده‌های کمّی نیز استفاده شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Cooperation; Competition

نویسندگان [English]

  • Javad Emamjomezadeh 1
  • Amir Hooshang Mirkooshesh 2

1 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Isfahan

2 Ph.D in International Relations, Azad University of Science and Research Branch, Isfahan

چکیده [English]

China's rise as a great geopolitics and regional Power of the World is challenged USA hegemony. An approach knows China's as a silent threat to the interests of the United States and East Asia and rival American power in the future and wants to prevent the growth of China and further restrictions on this country (emphasis on hard power). The second approach believes that by involving China in the global economy, society and various multilateral institutions can manage the country's rise to the status of a great power (soft power balance). Both countries have two systems of different political, cultural and racial composition. It is in a different stage of economic development and modernity is 6000 miles of each other. One on the peak of international hierarchy and the other is climbed toward it.History has shown that the great powers compete to hot or cold war ended and there is a lot of anticipation that the two countries are also in the path of this tragic step. These ideas point out to disputes of the two countries on Taiwan, human rights, trade, finance, regional security, arms control, and point out that both countries believe their military force ready for the confrontation against each other. Although it must be stressed that policy makers from both countries are aware of the German and British competition and historical background of the cold war between the Soviet Union and the United States. Clash of the two countries, according to the country's economic interdependence is very terrible for both. On the other hand the nuclear weapons deterrence decrease full-scale encounter between the two countries. However, the future relations of the two countries are on a range of cooperation and competition, and in the case of reaching China’s to the level of the political power of the American or even military will increase the clash as well. Due to the rise of China as a global power and the United States as a superpower now, what are the quality of future relations between China and the United States? Are relations between the two countries will shape mutual cooperation and convergence, stability and peace or with the deterioration of relations between the two countries will increase competition and perhaps even collide and the war? The authors by using of different approaches in the issue of future relations between the United States and China are trying to answer to the research questions posed, and reach to the hypothesis in the context. In this study we take into account with a pluralistic approach a qualitative research method. Qualitative research is benefiting from a combination of qualitative methods. Qualitative research methods require some kind of plurality method. Qualitative researcher are using in their work any materials or methods, experimental strategies available to work. Unlike common perception, qualitative methods are in no way meant the lack of use of quantities data, as has been used in this research too

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • China
  • United States of America
  • Economic rise
  • Interdependence
  • cooperation
  • Competetion
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