منازعه هند و پاکستان پس از 1998 و مدیریت بحران قدرت‌های بزرگ

نویسنده

استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

این مقاله در پی بررسی نقش قدرت‌های بزرگ در مدیریت منازعه هند و پاکستان پس از 1998 می‌باشد. سؤال اصلی این است که چگونه قدرت‌های بزرگ در فرایند مدیریت منازعه هند و پاکستان طی سال‌های 2010-1998 ایفای نقش کرده‌اند. مفروض اصلی مقاله این است که قدرت‌های مزبور در مدیریت منازعه هند و پاکستان حضور داشته و به ایفای نقش پرداخته‌اند. در پاسخ به سؤال‌های بالا از الگوی «مدیریت قدرت‌های بزرگ» و تحلیل‌های «جفتی/ وراجفتی» به عنوان چهارچوب نظری استفاده شده است. فرضیه اصلی این است که امریکا، روسیه و چین به عنوان سه قدرت بزرگ با استفاده از برتری محلی‌شان، احترام به حوزه‌های نفوذ یکدیگر و کنش مشترک در مدیریت منازعه هند و پاکستان نقش داشته‌اند. روش مورد استفاده برای آزمون فرضیه بالا، پس‌رویدادی است و به طور مشخص سه بحران 1999، 2-2001 و 2008 به عنوان مطالعه موردی بررسی می‌شوند. در نهایت، بررسی سه بحران مذکور نشان می‌دهد که قدرت‌های بزرگ در بحران 1999 موفق شده‌اند که منازعه هند و پاکستان را مدیریت کنند اما در دو بحران دیگر توفیقی نداشته‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Indo-Pakistani Conflict after the 1998 and the Great Powers’ Crisis Management

نویسنده [English]

  • Seyyed Ahmad Fateminejad

Assistant Professor of Political Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

چکیده [English]

This article aims to study great powers’ contribution to the management of Indo-Pakistani conflict after 1998. The main question here is as to how the great powers have engaged in the process of the conflict management during 1998-2010? It is assumed that the great powers have played their roles and been present in this conflict. The above question is addressed through using theory of “great powers management” and “dyadic/extra-dyadic” analysis. The main hypothesis here is that United States, Russia, and China as three great powers have contributed to the management of Indo-Pakistani conflict by exercising their local preponderance, respecting each other spheres of influence, and doing joint actions. The hypothesis is tested by post-event methods. As such, great powers’ role is tested during three case studies, i.e. Kargil War 1999, great stand-off 2001-2, and unfinished confrontation 2008. Lastly, these cases confirm that great powers have succeeded to manage Kargil war 1999 but they did not get any meaningful success in the other two

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Great Powers
  • Conflict Management
  • India
  • Pakistan
  • Dyadic Rivalry
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