تبیین عوامل موثر بر اتخاذ استراتژی دولت ترامپ نسبت به افغانستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

عضو هیات علمی، گروه روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

این مقاله در پی پاسخ به این پرسش است که چه  زمینه‌ها، شرایط و عواملی در تدوین استراتژی دونالد ترامپ رئیس جمهوری آمریکا نسبت به افغانستان موثر بوده‌اند ؟ فرضیه مقاله که به روش توصیفی - تحلیلی بررسی شده آن است که ترس از فروپاشی دولت افغانستان و تبدیل شدن این کشور به بهشت تروریست‌ها و در نتیجه، هدف قرار گرفتن منافع آمریکا و متحدینش به وسیله تروریست‌ها، باعث اتخاذ استراتژی جدید آمریکا در قبال افغانستان شده است.  بررسی این سوال و فرضیه از آن نظر اهمیت دارد که مساله افغانستان ارتباط تنگاتنگی با منافع و امنیت ملی ایران دارد و رصد تحولات ان به لحاظ تحلیلی حائز اهمیت است. یافته‌های مقاله نشان می‌دهد که شرایط و پیچیدگی‌های خاص جغرافیای طبیعی و انسانی افغانستان و نیز ملاحظات امنیتی کشور های منطقه در موفقیت یا ناکامی هر گونه استراتژی در افغانستان مهم هستند و احتمالا همین عوامل چالش‌های جدی را در مسیر اجرای استراتژی جدید آمریکا به وجود می‌آورد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Explain the factors that influence the Trump administration's strategy towards Afghanistan

نویسنده [English]

  • Nozar Shafiee

Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, University of Isfahan

چکیده [English]

This article seeks to answer the question, what areas, conditions, and factors have been instrumental in formulating President Donald Trump's strategy toward Afghanistan? The hypothesis of the paper, which has been analyzed in a descriptive-analytical way, is that the fear of the Afghan government collapsing and turning it into a paradise for terrorists and, consequently, targeting US and its allies by terrorists, has led to a new US strategy towards Afghanistan. Is. It is important to consider this question and the hypothesis that the Afghanistan issue is closely linked to Iran's national security and interests and that it is analytically observable. The paper's findings indicate that the specific circumstances and complexities of Afghanistan's natural and human geography, as well as the security considerations of regional countries, are critical to the success or failure of any strategy in Afghanistan, and these factors may pose serious challenges in implementing the new US strategy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Zero Base Strategy
  • Trump Strategy
  • Sustainable Freedom Operations
  • Afghanistan Crisis
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