باورهای بنیادین رهبران، برداشت ها از تهدید و تخاصم آمریکا و کرة شمالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته دکتری روابط بین الملل دانشگاه تهران

2 عضو هیئت علمی وزارت علوم، تحقیقات و فناوری

چکیده

باورهای رهبران و برداشت آنها از تهدید، بخش مهمی از دلایل تداومِ خصومت­ها میان دولت­ها در نظام بین­الملل است. صرف­نظر از میزان تهدید واقعی از سوی دشمن و پیامدهای آن و همچنین با نادیده گرفتن این واقعیت که بسیاری از اقدامات دولت­ها نه برای تهدید، بلکه تنها برای رفع نگران­های امنیتی است و اینکه رهبران دو کشور چه برداشتی از ماهیت تهدید داشته باشند، می­تواند به نتایج متفاوتی منتهی شود. این مقاله با در نظر گرفتن نقش باورهای رهبران دو کشور ایالات متحدة آمریکا و کرة شمالی در طول دهه­های گذشته و برداشت آنها از تهدید به ارزیابی دلیل تداوم خصومت­ها میان دو کشور، می­پردازد. فرضیه این مقاله بر این بنیان استوار شده است که برداشت خصمانه از نیات طرف مقابل و هرگونه اقدام به عنوان تلاشی برای تهدید امنیتی و ارزیابی­های متفاوت از میزان تهدید سبب تداوم ناکامی اقدمات برای رسیدن به یک راه­ حل نهایی صلح شده است. روش تحقیق در این پژوهش، تبیین علّی و نوع پژوهش کاربردی است .

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The principle beliefs of leaders,‎ Approaches from threat and hostility among America and the North Korea ‎

نویسندگان [English]

  • Majid Mohammad Sharifi 1
  • Amir Saeed Karami 2

1 Doctor of International Relations, University of Tehran

2 Member of the Faculty of Science, Research and Technology

چکیده [English]

Leaders' beliefs and their perceptions of the threat are an important part of the reason for the continued hostility between states in the international system. Regardless of the extent of the actual threat from the enemy and its aftermath, as well as ignoring the fact that many governments act not only for the threat but for the sake of security concerns and how the leaders of the two countries perceive the nature of the threat, it can yield results. It will lead to something different. This article examines the role of the leaders of the two United States and North Korean leaders over the past decades and their perceptions of the threat to assess the reason for the continuing hostility between the two countries. The hypothesis of this paper is based on the hostile perception of the intentions of the other party and any action as an attempt to threaten the security and different assessments of the extent of the threat that have sustained the failure to reach a final peace solution. The research method in this study is causal explanation and type of applied research.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Perception or misunderstanding of threat
  • North Korea
  • United States
  • perpetuation of hostilities
Albright, D (2013) North Korean Miniaturization, US-Korea Institute at SAIS, February 22, Available at:
Bandow, D (2017) North Korea’s Nuclear Threat Is America’s (Not the World’s) Problem, September 15, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/north-koreas-nuclear-threat-americas-not-the-worlds-problem-22316.
Bandow, D (2017) Trump's UN Speech Was a Win for North Korea, September 22, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/trumps-un-speech-was-win-north-korea-22427.
Bennet W. B & Kazianis, H. J. (2017) Why the North Korea Problem Is Far Worse Than You Think, April 21, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-the-north-korea-problem-far-worse-you-think-20295.
Bush, W. G. (2010) Decision Points, New York: Crown Publishers.
Cha, T. (2016) The Return of Jacksonianism: the International Implications of the Trump Phenomenon, the Washington quarterly, volume 39, issue 4, pp.83-97, Available at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0163660X.2016.1261562.
Chang, E. (2017) Why nobody wins in a War over North Korea, May 4, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-nobody-wins-war-over-north-korea-20500.
Clapper, R.J. (2015) Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community (statement for the record to the Senate Armed Services Committee, February 26, Available at: https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/SASC_Unclassified_2016_ATA_SFR_FINAL.pdf.
Clapper, R. J. (2011) Statement for the Record on the Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, February 16, Available at: https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/hearings/dni.pdf.
Clapper, R. J. (2013) DNI Statement on North Korea’s Nuclear Capability, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Press Release, April 11, Available at: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2013/item/839-dni-statement-on-north-korea-s-nuclear-capability.
Crisis Group (2015) North Korea: Beyond the Six-Party Talks, Asia Report N°269 16 June, Available at:
Douglas, C. (2017) The One Way North Korea Could Nuke America (Right Now) Everyone Is Missing, May 2, Available at:
Dueck, C. (2016) If Asked, National-Security Conservatives Should Serve the New Administration, November 18, Available at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/442315/national-security-conservatives-trump-administration-and-america-need-you-now.
Epogorov, G. & Konstantin S. (2005) Dictators and Their Viziers: Agency Problems in Dictatorships, William Davidson Institute Working Paper.
Farley R. (2017) Could North Korea Soon Launch a Nuclear War Against America from Underwater? April 29, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/could-north-korea-soon-launch-nuclear-war-against-america-20401.
Fitzpatrick M. Ed (2011) North Korean Security Challenges: A Net Assessment, London: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Gartner, H. (2014) North Korea, Deterrence and Engagement, Defense& Security Analysis, Volume30, Issue 4, pp. 336-345, Available at:
George, A. L. (1980) Presidential Decision-making in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice, Boulder, CO: Westview.
Gregson C. W. (2017) America Can Only Deter North Korea by ratcheting up the Pressure, May 1, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-can-only-deter-north-korea-by-ratcheting-the-20429.
Hermann, M. et.al (2001) Who Leads Matters: The Effects of Powerful Individuals, International Studies Review, Vol. 3, No.2, pp. 83 – 132.
Hobart, W. (2011) Threat Perception, Succession and Domestic Interests: Conceptualizing Contemporary North Korean Strategy, Available at: https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/attach/131/131859_Threat%20Percept.pdf.
Hun S. C. (2016) North Korea Says It Test-Fired Missile from Submarine, The New York Times, May 8, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/24/world/asia/north-korea-submarine-missile.html.
Hun, C. S. (2013) North Korea Vows to Keep Nuclear Arms and Fix Economy, New York Times, March 31, Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/01/world/asia/north-korea-vows-to-keep-nuclear-arms-and-fix-economy.html.
Hymans, E. C. J. (2008) Assessing North Korean Nuclear Intentions and Capacities: A New Approach, Journal of East Asian Studies, No. Pp.8 259–292.
Hymans, E.C.J. (2007) Estimating the DPRK’s Nuclear Intentions and Capacities: A Comparative Foreign Policy Approach, EAI Working Paper Series Ⅱ, Available at: https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/137730/2009052112134122.pdf.
Jacoby H. C. (2014) statement before the Committee on American Services, US Senate, Marche 13, Available at: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/download/jacoby_03-13-14.
Johnson, D. & Tierney D. (2007) We Shall be Smashed: The Munich Crisis, under confidence, and War, Unpublished manuscript.
Jervis, R. (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Kim, D. (2016) The Obama administration’s policy toward North Korea: the causes and consequences of strategic patience, Journal of Asian Public Policy Volume 9, 2016 - Issue 1,pp. 32-44.
Krauthammer, C. (1990) The Unipolar Moment, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 70, No. 1, PP. 23-33, Available at: http://users.metu.edu.tr/utuba/Krauthammer.pdf.
Larson, D. (1985) Origins of Containment, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Lebow, R. N. (1981) Between Peace and War, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Levy, J. S. (1983) Misperception and the Causes of War: Theoretical Linkages and Analytical Problems, World Politics, Vol. 36, No. 1, PP. 76 – 99.
Levy S. J. (2013) Psychology and Foreign Policy Decision Making, Rutgers University, The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 2nd ed. Edited by Leonie Huddy, David O. Sears, and Jack S. Levy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, Available at: https://www.surrey.ac.uk/politics/research/researchareasofstaff/isppsummeracademy/instructors%20/Levy%20-%20Psychology%20and%20Foreign%20Policy%20Decision-Making.pdf.
Levy, S.J. & Thompson, W. R. (2010) Balancing at Sea: Do States Ally Against the Leading Global Power? Unpublished paper.
Majumdar, D. (2017) Is Now the Time to Launch a Preemptive Military Strike on North Korea? September 23, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/now-the-time-launch-preemptive-military-strike-north-korea-22448.
Manyin, E. M. (2010) North Korea: Back on the Terrorism List? Specialist in Asian Affairs June 29, Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30613.pdf.
Mead, R. W. (1999/2000) The Jacksonian Tradition: And American Foreign Policy, The National Interest, No. 58, pp. 5-2, Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/42897216?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents.
McEachern, P. (2010) Inside the Red Box: North Korea's Post-totalitarian Politics, New York, Columbia University Press.
Mizokami, K. (2017) The Real Reason We Should Fear North Korea (And It's Not Nuclear Weapons), May 5, Available at; http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-real-reason-we-should-fear-north-korea-its-not-nuclear-20526.
Mundy, S. (2015) North Korea Executes Minister by Anti-aircraft Fire, Says Seoul, Financial Times, May 13, Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/14c2b5e8-f91e-11e4-be00-00144feab7de
National Intelligence Council (1999) Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015, Available at: http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ foreign%20Missile%20Developments_1999.pdf.
Nisbett, R. & Ross L. (1980) Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Osborn K. (2017) The Ultimate Question: Could America Stop a Nuclear Attack from North Korea? April 29, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-ultimate-question-could-america-stop-nuclear-attack-20418.
Page, J. & Solomon, J. (2015) China Warns North Korean Nuclear Threat Is Rising, The Wall Street Journal, April 22, Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-warns-north-korean-nuclear-threat-is-rising-1429745706.
Park, H. (2013) US to Boost Missile Defense in Response to North Korean Threat, the hankyoreh, March18, Available at: http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/578507.html.
Pena V. C. (2017) Trump's Tough Talk Won't Work on North Korea, April 27, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/trumps-tough-talk-wont-work-north-korea-20384.
Pickrell, R. (2017) Secretary of State Rex Tillerson:“Business as Usual” with North Korea “Is Not an Option”, April 28, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/secretary-state-rex-tillerson-%E2%80%9Cbusiness-usual%E2%80%9D-north-korea-%E2%80%9C-20395.
Pickrell, R. (2017) President Trump: Trump: "Major Conflict with North Korea" Absolutely Possible, April 28, Available at: http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/president-trump-trump-major-conflict-north-korea-absolutely-20387.
Pinkston, D. (2016) Did the Kim Regime Exaggerate N. Korea’s Nuclear Capability? NK News, January 7, Available at: https://www.nknews.org/2016/01/did-the-kim-regime-exaggerate-n-koreas-nuclear-capability/.
Pollack, D. J. (2011) No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, and International Security, New York: Rutledge.
Ramstad, E. (2012) After First Glance, North Korea’s Missiles Not as Fearsome, Wall Street Journal, December 13, http://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2012/12/13/after-first-glance-north-koreas-missiles-not-as-fearsome/.
Rinehart E.I. & Nikitin, M. B. D. (2016) North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation, Emma Chanlett-Avery, Coordinator, Congressional Research Service, Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41259.pdf.
Rogers, J. P. (1991) Crisis Bargaining Codes and Crisis Management, In Alexander L. George, ed., Avoiding Inadvertent War: Problems of Crisis Management. Boulder, CO: Westview, pp. 413 – 42.
Ruggiergo, A. (2017) Countering the North Korean Threat: New Steps in U.S. Policy, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, House Foreign Affairs Committee, Washington, DC February 7, Available at: https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/hearing-countering-north-korean-threat-new-steps-u-s-policy/.
Sanger E. D. (2014) U.S. Commander Sees Key Nuclear Step by North Korea, The New York Times, October 24, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/25/world/asia/us-commander-sees-key-nuclear-step-by-north-korea.html.
Sanger E. D. (2015) With U.S. Eyes on Iran, North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal Expanded, The New York Times, May 7, Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/08/world/asia/with-us-eyes-on-iran-north-koreas-nuclear-arsenal-expanded.html.
Sanger, E. D. (2002) North Korea Says It Has a Program on Nuclear Arms, The New York Times, October 17, Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/17/world/north-korea-says-it-has-a-program-on-nuclear-arms.html.
Sanger, D. & Dao, J. (2002) A Nuclear North Korea: Intelligence; U.S. Says Pakistan Gave Technology to North Korea, The New York Times, October 18, Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/18/world/nuclear-north-korea-intelligence-us-sayspakistan-gave-technology-north-korea.html.
Scaparrotti, C. (2014) Department of Defense press briefing, October 24, Available at: http://www.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.
Scaparrotti, C. (2015) Statement of before the Senate Armed Services Committee, April 16, Available at: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Scaparrotti_04-16-15.pdf.
Sisk,T. D. (2009) International Mediation in Civil Wars: Bargaining with Bullets, London: Rutledge.
Snyder, R. C. et.al (1962) Decision – Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics, New York: Free Press of Glencoe.
Stone J. J. (2011) Catalytic Diplomacy: Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, New York, Catalytic Diplomacy.
Tetlock, P. E. (1998) Social Psychology and World Politics, In D. Gilbert, S. Fiske, and G. Lindzey, eds., Handbook of Social Psychology, 4th ed. New York: McGraw - Hill, pp. 868 – 912.
Tilly, C. (1975) Reflections on the History of European State Making, In Charles Tilly, ed. The Formation of National States in Western Europe. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Thielmann G. (2015) Understanding the North Korean Nuclear Threat, Arms Control Association, May 12, Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/Threat Assessment-Brief/Understanding-the-North-Korean-Nuclear-Threat.
Wæver, O. (1998) the Sociology of a Not So International Discipline: American and European Developments in International Relations, International Organization Vol. 52, and No. 4 pp. 687 – 727.
Walker,S. et.al (1999) Presidential Operational Codes and Foreign Policy Conflicts in the Post - Cold War World, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.43, No. 5 PP. 610– 25.
Waltz, K. N. (1959) Man, the State, and War, New York: Columbia University Press.
Weathersby K. (2005) the Enigma of the North Korean Regime: Back to the Future? In James M. Lister, ed., Challenges Posed by the DPRK for the Alliance and the Region Washington, DC: Korea Economic Institute.
Wit S. J. & Ahn S. Y. (2015) North Korea’s Nuclear Futures: Technology and Strategy, North Korea Nuclear Futures Series, Available at: http://38north.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/NKNF-NK-Nuclear- Futures-Wit-0215.pdf.
Wright, D. (2012) Questions about the Unha-3 Failure, 38 North, May 4, available at: http://www.38north.org/2012/05/dwright050412/.
Ying, F. (2017) The Korean Nuclear Issue: Past, Present, and Future a Chinese Perspective, Strategy Paper May 3, available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2017/04/north-korean-nuclear-issue-fu-ying.pdf