پژوهش های روابط بین الملل

بحران سوریه و تاثیر آن بر منافع ملی و منطقه ای ترکیه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین الملل دانشگاه ‏اصفهان

2 دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

بحران سوریه از آغاز تاکنون، یکی از مهم ترین رویدادهایی است که جهت گیری های منطقه ای و بین المللی ترکیه را تحت تاثیر قرار داده است. این بحران برای ترکیه به نوعی بازی با حاصل جمع جبری صفر بوده که طی آن هر گونه تحولات بنیادین در ساختار سیاسی و  امنیتی این کشور، امنیت و منافع ترکیه را متاثر خواهد کرد. سوریه دروازه ورود ترکیه به جهان عرب و اتصال استراتژیک ترکیه به خاورمیانه است. این پژوهش با در نظر گرفتن اهمیت بحران سوریه بر محیط امنیتی منطقه، تاثیرگذاری تحولات سوریه بر امنیت و منافع ملی ترکیه را مورد بحث قرار داده است. بر اساس یافته­های پژوهش بحران سوریه نه تنها با قدرت­یابی کردها و گروه­های اسلامی افراطی نظیر داعش در امتداد مرزهای جنوبی ترکیه و تهدید امنیت ملی این کشور همراه بوده است بلکه با ایجاد تنش در روابط آنکارا با دمشق و متحدان غربی اش، تهدیدات اقتصادی و سیاسی را نیز متوجه  ترکیه نموده است. مقاله حاضر به روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و در چارچوب مکتب کپنهاگ پیدایش داعش و منطقه خودمختار کرد در شمال سوریه و تهدیدات امنیتی ناشی از ظهور آن دو بر امنیت ملی ترکیه را بررسی نموده است. همچنین به مسئله روابط متشنج دو بازیگر عمده منطقه‌ای یعنی ترکیه و آمریکا نیز پرداخته است

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Syrian Crisis and Its Impact On the National and Regional Interests of Turkey

نویسندگان [English]

  • Niknam Babry 1
  • Shahroz Ebrahimi 2

1 PhD student in International Relations, University of Isfahan

2 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Isfahan

چکیده [English]

The Syrian crisis from the beginning is one of the most important events that has affected the regional and international orientation of Turkey. The crisis for Turkey was a zero-sum game, in which any fundamental changes in the political and security structure of the country would affect the security and interests of Turkey. Syria is the gateway to Turkey's entry into the Arab world and Turkey's strategic connection to the Middle East. Considering the importance of the Syrian crisis over the security environment in the region, this study has discussed the impact of Syrian developments on the security and national interests of Turkey. According to research findings, the crisis in Syria has been accompanied not only by the power of the Kurds and radical Islamic groups such as ISIS along the southern borders of Turkey and the threat of national security, but also by tensions in Ankara's relationship with Damascus and its western allies, economic and political threats Has also come to Turkey. This article has been reviewed by the descriptive-analytical method within the framework of the Copenhagen School of the Islamic State of ISIL and the Kurdish Autonomous Kurds in northern Syria and the security threats posed by their emergence on the Turkish national security. He also addressed the tense relationship between the two major regional actors, Turkey and the United States.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ISIL
  • Kurds
  • Turkey
  • Syria
برچر، مایکل. (1382). بحران در سیاست جهان، جلد دوم، ترجمه حیدر علی بلوجی، تهران: انتشارات پزوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
بوزان، باری، ویور، الی و دوویلد، پاپ. (1392). چهارچوبی تازه برای تحلیل امنیت، ترجمه علیرضا طیب، چاپ دوم، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
دانش‌نیا، فرهاد. (1394). «تحولات سیاست خارجی ترکیه در قبال سوریه و تبیین مؤلفه‌های تاثیرگذار بر آن (2002 تا 2014) تهران»، فصلنامهرهیافت‌هایسیاسیوبینالمللی،  سال ششم، شماره 39.
خبرگزاری کرد پرس (1395). "عقاب‌های آزاد کردستان و رابطه با پ.ک.ک"، 28 آذر ماه.  at: http://kurdpress.com/Fa/NSite/FullStory/News/?Id=120051#Title.
سلطانی‌نژاد، احمد، جمشیدی، محمد حسین، و محسنی، سجاد. (1395). «تحول مفهوم امنیت در پرتو جهانی شدن و فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات نوین»، فصلنامه سیاست جهانی، دوره پنجم، شماره دوم، صص 42-7.
قاسمی، محمد علی. (1395). «استراتژی ترکیه در قبال داعش»، فصلنامهمطالعاتراهبرد، سال نوزدهم، شماره سوم، صص 114-93.
ویلیامز، پل. (1390). درآمدی بر بررسی‌های امنیت، ترجمه علیرضا طیب، تهران: انتشارات امیر کبیر.
Alaranta, Toni. (2017). TURKISH TROOPS IN SYRIA, FIIA BRIEFING PAPER 214 • February 2017
Anthony, Shadid Konya. (2011). "Turkey Calls for Syrian Reforms on Order of ‘Shock Therapy", New York Times.
Barzegar, Kayhan. (2012). “The Arab Spring and the Balance of Power in the Middle East”, at: http://www.powerandpolicy.com, (Accessed on: 13/9/2015).
Bell, Michael. (2012). “In Syria, The Powers Play Hardball”, 23 July, at: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/in-syria-the-powers-play-hardball/article 4431894/, (accessed04.02.2013).
 
Bröker, Laura. (2016). " Any Hope for a Kurdish State? The United States, Germany and the Prospects of Kurdish Self-Determination", Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung North America.
Cagaptay, Soner & Menekse, Bilge. (2014). "the Impact of Syria’s Refugees on Southern Turkey", The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Candar,Cengiz. (2018). Deadly Ankara-West fault line cracks open at Syria's Manbij Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/04/turkey-united-states-syria-manbij-becomes-fault-line.html#ixzz5DuCwRQzA
Chittenden, Michael. (2016). "Turkey and the Kurds: Conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and Implications for Turkey-United States Relations", Global Security Studies, Volume 7, Issue 3, pp.31-40.
Cockburn, Patrick (November 2015). War with Isis: President Obama demands that Turkey
close stretch of border with Syria. The Independent.
Cordesman, Anthrony. (2011). "Rethinking the Arab Spring; Stability and Security in Egypt,Tunisia", at: http://www.CSIS.com, (Accessed on: 13/9/2016).
Cunningham,Erin. (2018). Turkey, once a haven for Syrian refugees, grows weary of their presence, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/turkey-to-syrian-refugees-you-dont-have-to-go-home-but-dont-stay-here/2018/04/04/d1b17d8c-222a-11e8-946c-9420060cb7bd_story.html
Dufner, Urlke & Berthold, Marc. (2010). Foreign Policy of Turkey in the Middle East: Values, Interest, Goals, Hein Rich Boll Stift UNG, as ofFebruary 3.
Dapkus, Simonas. (2016). "Turkey’s Security Dilemma on the Border With Syria: Situation Assessment and Perspectives of the Intervention", at: http://lfpr.lt/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/LFPR_2015_33_Dapkus.pdf, (Accessed on: 13/9/2016).
Daily Sabah. (2017). "A chronology of Daesh attacks targeting Turkey", at: https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2017/01/01/a-chronology-of-daesh-attacks-targeting-turkey.
Eric Czuleger. )2017). The US, Turkey and the Kurds, Geopolitical Futures Keeping the future in focus, https://geopoliticalfutures.com
Galip Dalay. (2016). Emerging Threats and New Trends in Turkish Foreign Policy
Center for American Progress.
Esmailzadeh, Yaser. (2013). “Turkey’s Foreign Policy towards the Middle East (2002-2013)”,Switzerland Research Park Journal, Vol.103, No. 1, pp.327-335.
Gunter, Michael M. (2016). "the Kurdish Issue in Turkey: Back to Squar one?", Turkish Policy Quarterly,Vol.14, No.4, pp.77-86.
Haddad, Bassam. (2015). “The Russian Moment via Syria”, in, “Disrupting the Chessboard; Perespectives on the russian Intervention in Syria”, Harvard Kennedy School
Hurriyet Dayli News. (2017). "Turkey became major target of ISIL attacks in 2016", at: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-became-major-target-of-isil-attacks-in-2016.aspx?pageID=238&nID=108047&NewsCatID=341, (Accessed on: 13/4/2017).
Hurriyet Dayli News. (2018). Ankara boosts efforts to prevent disaster in Idlib, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-boosts-efforts-to-prevent-disaster-in-idlib-136373
Levaggi, Ariel González(2015), Forced Humanitarianism: Turkey’s Syrian Policy and the Refugee Issue, Caucasus International
Icduygu, Ahmet. (2015). "Syrian Refugees in Turkey: the long Road Ahead", Migration Policy Institute.
International Crisis Group. (2016). "Turkey’s Refugee Crisis: The Politics of Permanence", Europe Report N°241.
International Crises group. (2013). "Syria’s Kurds: A Struggle Within a Struggle, Middle East Report N°136.
Institute for Security& Development Policy. (2016). Turkey’s Kurdish Conflict: 2015-Present,www.ISDP.EU.
International Trade Center. (2017). at: http://www.trademap.org/ Bilateral_TS.aspx?nvpm =1|792||643||TOTAL|||2|1|1|2|2|1|1|1|1, (Accessed on: 13/4/2017).
Jung, Dietrich. (2011). "After The Arab Spring: Is Turkey a Model For Arab States?", Center For Mellemostsudier-sidansk university, at: http//:www.static.sdu.Dk., (Accessed on: 13/2/2015).
Mcguinness,Romona. (2018). ussia and Turkey are UNITED’ Ankara hits back at Macron in Syria bombing row, https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/947596/russia-turkey-syria-war-syria-bombing-france-emmanuel-macron.
Morton, I Ambs & Abramowitz and Eric S. Edelman, Co-Chairs (2013),”U.S.Turkish Cooperation Toward a Post-Assad Syria”, Bipartisan Policy Center
Nader, Alireza & Hanauer, Larry& Allen, Brenna& G. Scotten, Ali. (2016). "Regional Implications of an Independent Kurdistan", RAND Corporation.
Onar, Nora Fisher. (2016). “The Populism/Realism Gap: Managing Uncertainty in Turkey’s Politics and Foreign Policy”, The Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings — Turkey project.
Phillips, Christopher. (2010). Turkey and Syria, London: School of Economics and Political Science.
Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Investment Support and Promotion Agency. (2017). at: http://www.invest.gov.tr/en-US/sectors/Pages/WellnessAndTourism.aspx, (Accessed on: 13/4/2017).
Schenker, David. (2011). "Turkey's shift on Syria gives West Room to get Tougher on Assad", at: http: //www.csmonitor.com/Commentary /Opinion /2011 / 0609/Turkey-s-shift-on-Syria-gives- West-room-to-get-tougher-on-Assad, (Accessed on: 13/4/2016).
SENGUPTA, ANITA. (2016). Turkey, Syria, and the Islamic State, ORF ISSUE BRIEF www.orfonline.org.
SEMİN, Ali. (2014). THE SYRIA CRISIS AND TURKEY, Wise Men Center For Strategic Studies,WWW.BILGESAM.ORG
Taner Özen, Kayhan. (2017). " Syrian refugees may offer chances for Turkey’s tourism industry", hurriyet daily news.
Taspinar, Omer. (2012). Turkey; the New Model? From the book: the Islamistsare coming: who They Really Are, Co-published by the WilsonCenter and the U.S. Institute of peace, April.
Tocci, Nathalie. (2013). “Turkey’s Kurdish Gamble”, The International Spectator, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp.67-77.
Turkish Statistical Institute. (2017). at: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/Start.do, (Accessed on: 13/4/2017).
UN Comtrade Data. (2017). " International Trade in Goods based on UN Comtrade data", at: https://comtrade.un.org/labs/BIS-trade-in-goods/?reporter=760&year=2010&flow=2, (Accessed on: 13/4/2017).
UNHCR. (2017). at: http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php, (Accessed on: 13/4/2017).
پژوهش های روابط بین الملل
دوره 8، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 28
شهریور 1397
صفحه 121-148