پژوهش های روابط بین الملل

پژوهش های روابط بین الملل

تاثیر پویش‌های فناورانه بر رقابت چین و ایالات متحده در عصر انقلاب صنعتی چهارم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار گروه روابط بین‌الملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
2 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
قدرت نسبی کشورهای تراز اول در جهان هرگز از وضعیت باثباتی برخوردار نبود و از قرن هجدهم نظام بین‌المللی بارها دستخوش تحولات عمیق و بازتوزیع قدرت میان دولت‌های توسعه یافته گردید. هدف این مقاله تبیین تحول در فناوری‌های نوین و شرایط ایجاد تغییر در منحنی قدرت نظام بین‌المللی است تا از ماهیت رقابت فناورانة چین و ایالات متحده آمریکا در عصر انقلاب صنعتی چهارم پرده بردارد و سعی در پاسخ دادن به این پرسش دارد که دستیابی به فناوری‌های نوین در طول انقلاب‌های صنعتی چگونه بر تغییر منحنی قدرت دولت‌ها تأثیرگذار بوده است؟ در پاسخ به این پرسش فرض بر این قرار گرفته است که تحولات فناورانه با ایجاد الگوهای رشد نابرابر ناشی از صنعتی شدن، ضمن تسریع توسعة اقتصادی و تقویت قدرت کشورهای در حال توسعه از طریق تعمیق ظرفیت فناورانه، منحنی قدرت نظام بین‌المللی را دچار تغییر و تحولات گسترده ساخته است. روش این پژوهش توصیفی-تبیینی است و یافته‌های آن نشان می‌دهد که نوآوری‌های فناورانه به عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین پارامترهای سنجش میزان قدرت در نظر گرفته می‌شود و از آنجایی که اصلی‌ترین هدف دولت‌ها در طول انقلاب‌های صنعتی، دستیابی به جدیدترین فناوری‌ها به منظور تقویت قدرت سیاسی و اقتصادی و پیشی گرفتن از قدرت‌های رقیب به شمار می‌رود، تقویت ظرفیت فناورانة چین به عنوان مهم‌ترین رقیب ایالات متحده، موقعیت رهبری آن در عرصة نظام بین‌المللی را با خطر جدی مواجه خواهد کرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The impact of technological dynamism on the competition between China and the United States in the era of the fourth industrial revolution

نویسندگان English

Seyyed Ali Monavari 1
Niloufar Ahmadi 2
1 Associate Professor of International Relations, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 Graduated of International Relations, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

The relative power of the first-class countries in the world was never stable, and since the 18th century, the international system has undergone many profound developments and redistributions of power among developed states. This article aims to explain the evolution of new technologies and the conditions for changing the power curve of the international system and to disclose the nature of the technological competition between China and the United States of America in the era of the fourth industrial revolution, and to try to answer the question of how the acquisition of new technologies during industrial revolutions influenced the change in the power curve of states? In response to this question, it is assumed that technological developments have changed the power curve of the international system by creating unequal growth patterns caused by industrialization while accelerating economic development and strengthening the power of developing countries through deepening technological capacity. The method of this research is descriptive-explanatory, and its findings show that technological innovations are considered one of the most important parameters for measuring the degree of power, and since the main goal of states during industrial revolutions is to achieve the latest technology, are considered to strengthen the political and economic power and catch-up the rival powers, strengthening the technological capacity of China as the most important competitor of the United States will drastically endanger its leadership position in the arena of the international system.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Technology
China
United States of America
Industrial Revolution
Power Transition
احمدی، علی، زرگر، افشین و آدمی، علی (1401). «نقش فناوری‌های نوظهور در امنیت و قدرت ملی کشورها»: فرصت‌ها و تهدیدها، فصلنامه مطالعات بین‌المللی، 18(4(پیاپی 72))، صص 139 ـ 159، از http://dio.org/10.22034/isj.2021
سلطانی نژاد، احمد، جمشیدی، محمد حسین، پوردست، زهرا (1395). «دگرگونی مفهوم قدرت در پرتو فناوری نوین اطلاعاتی_ارتباطی»، دو فصلنامه علمی_پژوهشی دانش سیاسی، 12(1(پیاپی 23)، صص 73_98، از http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
شریعتی‌نیا، محسن، مسعودی، حیدرعلی (1398). «چین و نظم‌های بین‌الملل»، فصلنامه علمی سیاست جهانی، 8(3(پیاپی 29)، صص 7-32
موسی‌پسندی، علی اصغر، پولادی، کمال (1400). «موج سوم انقلاب تکنولوژیک، نِومرکانتیلیسم اقتصادی و عدالت انتزاعی»، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های روابط بین‌الملل، 11(1(پیاپی 40)، صص 189-218
هدایتی، علی (1394). «قدرت: فصل مشترک فناوری و سیاست»، کنفرانس بین‌المللی علوم انسانی، روانشناسی و علوم اجتماعی، تهران
قنبرلو، عبدالله (1395). «آثار دوگانه گشایش اقتصادی بر سیاست خارجی چین»، جستارهای سیاسی معاصر، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی، 7(2)، صص 45 ـ 68، از http://politicalstudy.ihcs.ac.ir/article-2220.html
Allen, Gregory C. (2023). “China’s New Strategy for Waging the Microchip Tech War”, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), from http://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-strategy-waging-microchip-tech-war
Allen, Robert C. (2009). “The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective”, Cambridge University Press, Retrieved 2014, June, from http://dio.org/10.1017/CBO9780511816680
Alvarez Sanz, Victor Manuel(2018). “The Evolution of Japanese Robotics: From the Beginning to the Newest Tendencies”, Universitat de Barcelona, from http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/126059/1/TFG-GEI-Alvarez-VictorManuel-Jun18.pdf
Breitenbauch, Henrik, and Liebetrau, Tobias (2021). “Technology Competition: Strategic implications for the West and Denmark”(report), Djof Publishing In cooperation with the Center for Military Studies, from http://cms.polsci.ku.dk/english/publications/techniligy-competition-strategic-implications-for-the-wesr-and-denmark/
Coch, Charles J. (2021). “Testing the Power Transition Theory with Relative Military Power”, Journal of Strategic Security, 14(3), pp:86-111, from https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1884
Congressional Research Service(2023). “” Made in China 2025” Industrial Policies: Issues for Congress”(reports), Updated March 10, from http://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/IF10964.pdf
Clark, Gregory (2005). “The British Revolution, 1760-1780” (Working paper). from http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/ecn110b/readings/ecn110b-chapter2-2005.pdf
Danilin, Ivan V. (2022). “The U.S.-China Tech War: A Dawn of New Geopolitics?”, in National Institute for Defence Studies(editor), Technological Innovation and Security: The Impact on the Strategic Environment in East Asia, Tokyo: National Institute for Defence Studies
Drezner, Daniel. (2001). “State structure, technological leadership and the maintenance of hegemony”, British International Studies Association 1(1), pp:003-025, from http://dio.org/10.1017/S0260210501000031
DiCicco, Jonathan M., Levy, Jack S. (1999). “Powershifts and Problem Shifts: The Evolution of the Powertransition Reaserch Program”, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(6), pp:675-704, from https://www.jstor.org/stable/174600
Ding, Jeffry (2021). “The Rise and Fall of Great Power Technologies and Power”, University of Oxford, from http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:d41aba26-e6fa-4c2c-92b0-9e0ec67e4583
Doshi, Rush (2020). “The United States, China and the Contest for the Fourth Industrial Revolution”, Brookings Institution China Strategy Initative Fellow, from http://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-united-states-china-and-the-contest-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution
Filemon, Elizabeth(1987). “Robots: their present ـ day use and prospects for the future”, In Danzin, Andre (Eds.),The Third Industrial Revolution, Impact Science and Society, from http://unesdoc.org/ark:/48223/pf0000075479
Garvey, Colin(2019). “Artificial Intelligence and Japan’s Fifth Generation: The Information Society, Neoliberalism, and Alternative Modernities”, Pacific Historical Review, 88(4), pp:619-658, from http://dio.org/10.1525/phr.2019.88.4.619
Grochmalski, Piotr, Lewandowski, Piotr and Paszak, Pawel (2020). “US-China Technological Rivalry and its Implication for the Three Seas Initiative (3SI)”, European Research Studies Journal, Vol XXIII, Special Issue 2, from http://ersj.eu/journal/1901/download/US-China+Technological+Rivalry+and+its+implications++for+the+three+seas+Initiative+3SI.pdf
Guerrieri, Paolo (1992). “Technological and Trade Competition: the changing positions of the United State, Japan, and Germany”, in Harris, Martha Caldwell and Moore, Gordon(Eds.), Linking Trade Technology Policies, National Academy Press: Washington D.C, Retrieved 2002, from http://nap.nationalacademies.org/2002
Hammes T. X. (2018). “Technological Change and the Fourth Industrial Revolution”, From http://cove.army.gov.au/article/yechnological-change-and-fourth-industrial-revolution-tx-hammes
Hammes, T. X., and Di-Euliis Diane (2020). “Contemporary Great Power Technological Competitive Factors in the Forth Industrial Revolution”, in Lynch III, Thomas F. (Eds.), Strategic Assessment 2020: into a New Era of Great Power Competition,Washington: Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University, from https://ndpress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/Books/SA2020/Strategic-Assessment-2020.pdf?ver=NTckVdG56-CfFYJ73PTgg==
Haque, Irfan (2020). Trade, Technology, and International Competitiveness. Washington: World Bank Institute Development Studies
Herd, Graeme (2020). Great Power Competition and Europe: State and Network-centric Perspective, in Swan, Patrick(Eds.) Great Power Competition and Europ’s Future, Journal of Europe Security and Defense Issues, Vol10, from http://www.marshallcenter.org/sites/default/files/files/2020-10/pC-V10N3-en.pdf
Jovens, H. Stanley (1931). “The Second Industrial Revolution”. The Economic Journal, 41(161), pp:1-18, from http://dio.org/10.2307/2224131
Krugman, Paul R. (1992). “An International Comparison of the Policies of Industrialized Nations”, in Harris, Martha Caldwell and Moore, Gordon(Eds.), Linking Trade Technology Policies, National Academy Press: Washington D.C, Retrieved 2002, from http://nap.nationalacademies.org/2002
Kugler, Jacek and Organeski, A. F. K. (2011). “The Power Transation: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation”, in Midlarsky, Manus I. (Eds.), Handbook of War Studies
Li, Guoping, Hou, Yun, Wu, Aizhi(2017). “Forth Industrial Revolution: technological drivers, impacts and copina methods”, Chinese Geographical Science, 24(4), pp:626-637, from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-017-0809-x
Moharajan, Haradhn Kumar (2021). “Third Industrial Revolution Brings Global Development”, Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 7(4), pp:239-252, from http://mpra.ub.uni.muenchen.de/110972/1/MPARA-paper-110972.pdf
Moharajan, Haradhan Kumar (2019). “The Second Industrial Revolution has Brought Modern Social and Economic Developments”, Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 6(1), pp:1-14, from http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98209/1/MPARA-paper-98209.pdf
Mokyr, Joel and Strotz, Robert H. (1998). “The Second Industrial Revolution 1870-1914”, from http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/jmokyr/castronovo.pdf
Naude, Wim and Nagler, Paula (2022). “The Ossified Economy: The Case of Germany 1870-2020”, Institute of Labor Economics, No15607, from http://iza.org/publications/dp/15607/the/ossified-economy-the-case-of-germany-1870-2020
Nabi Khan, Rahat (1987). “The Third Industriah Revolution: an economic overview”, In Danzin, Andre(Eds.),The Third Industrial Revolution, Impact Science and Society, from http://unesdoc.org/ark:/48223/pf0000075479
Sakakibara, Kiyonori(1993). “R&D cooperation among competitors: A case study of VLSI Semiconductor Research Project in Japan”, Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 10, pp:393-407, from http://dio.org/10.1016/0923-4748(93)90030-M
Schwab, Klaus (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Geneva: World Economic Forum, from http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF-The-Fourth-Industrial-Revolution.pdf
Steinsson, Jon (2023). “How Did Growth Begin? The Industrial Revolution and its Antecedents”, University of California, from http://www.sematicscholar.org/paper/How-Did-Growth-Begin-The-Industrial-Revolution-and-Steinson/207c73fb3e724c6b679aaf117c8604944d534f4b
Taylor, Mark Z. (2006). “The Political Economy of Technological Innovation: A Change in the Debate”, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, from https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/35289/73526934-MIT.pdf;sequence=2
The World Bank (2023). High-technology exports (currentUS$) | Data. Retrieved 2023, August 29, from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.TECH.CD?locations=AM-CN-US-JP-DE-GB
Wolfe, David A. (1981). “Mercantilism, Liberalism and Keynesianism: changing from of state intervention in capitalist economies”, Canadian Journal of Political and Social Theory, 5(2), pp:69-96, from http://journal.uvic.ca/index.php/ctheory/article/view/13895/4670
Yilmaz, Serafettin and Xiangyu, Wang (2019). “Power Transation Theory Revisited when Rising China Meets Dissatisfied”, Institutes for International Studies China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 5(3), pp:314-317, from http://dio.org/10.1142/S2377740019500192
Zeng, Ka (2004). “U.S.-Japan Trade Conflicts: Semiconductors and Super 301”, in Zeng, Ka(auther.), Trade Threats, Trade Wars: Bargaining, Relation, and American Coercive Diplomacy,United State: The University of Michigan Press
Zhao, Minghao (2019). “Is a New Cold War Inevitable? Chinese Perspectives on US-China Strategic Competition”, The Journal of International Politics, 12(3), pp:371-394, from http://dio.org/10.1093/cjip/poz010