Since the 1980s, Turkey has embarked on a developmental trajectory that, by the early 21st century, gradually positioned the country as an emerging economic power. Simultaneously, Turkey initiated its accession process to the European Union during the same decade. Although this process has not culminated in full membership as of 2025—and has in fact weakened over the past two decades—it has nevertheless remained an active and influential factor in Turkey's macro-level policymaking and strategic orientation. In particular, the EU accession process has played a significant role in shaping Turkey's transformation into an emerging economic power over the past three decades. Given this context, the central research question of the present study is as follows: How has Turkey’s EU accession process—with its specific institutional and economic requirements—influenced objective indicators of economic development and the country’s status as an emerging economic power during the period 1980 to 2025? To address this question, the following hypothesis is proposed: Although Turkey has not achieved full EU membership, the institutional and economic standards imposed by the accession process—particularly through conditionality mechanisms in areas such as trade liberalization, privatization, improvement of the business environment, attraction of foreign direct investment, and enhancement of competitive infrastructure—have contributed to sustained economic growth and the elevation of Turkey’s position as an emerging economic power in the international system.
Introduction
Turkey’s transformation from a largely state-controlled and crisis-prone economy into an emerging economic power represents one of the most prominent development trajectories among middle-income countries. Since the 1980s, Turkey has implemented structural reforms aimed at liberalizing its economy, promoting privatization, and integrating into global markets. Simultaneously, Turkey pursued accession to the European Union, a process that, despite remaining incomplete, has exerted a significant influence on its economic policies and strategic development. EU membership aspirations created an external framework of conditionalities that shaped domestic policy-making, governance reforms, and institutional strengthening. These conditionalities were not merely formal prerequisites for membership; they functioned as mechanisms for promoting sustainable economic growth, enhancing competitiveness, and aligning Turkey with international economic norms. This article examines how Turkey’s engagement with EU economic conditionalities has influenced its evolution as an emerging economic power, emphasizing the interplay between external incentives and domestic developmental strategies. It explores the question of how conditionalities in trade liberalization, investment promotion, privatization, and institutional capacity have contributed to Turkey’s economic modernization, structural reforms, and positioning in the global economy. By analyzing these dynamics, the study contributes to understanding how strategic integration into regional economic frameworks can accelerate domestic development even without formal membership.
Methodology
This study employs a qualitative, descriptive-analytical approach to examine the influence of EU economic conditionalities on Turkey’s economic emergence. Data were collected through extensive library research, analysis of official reports, academic publications, and international datasets from organizations such as the World Bank, IMF, OECD, and WTO. The research focuses on key indicators reflecting economic growth, investment, trade performance, institutional reforms, and competitiveness. Using process tracing and documentary analysis, the study identifies causal relationships between the EU’s conditionality mechanisms and structural economic transformations in Turkey. The methodology allows for integrating historical, institutional, and policy perspectives, offering a comprehensive understanding of the conditionality-driven development process.
 
Theoretical Framework                              
The study draws upon three complementary theoretical perspectives. First, the developmental state theory emphasizes the central role of state-led strategic planning and policy coordination in driving economic modernization, highlighting how governments can direct resources and implement reforms to achieve sustained growth. Second, the EU conditionality framework provides insight into how external requirements and standards act as incentives for candidate countries to reform domestic institutions, policies, and regulatory structures. Conditionalities cover areas such as trade liberalization, privatization, investment promotion, and governance improvement. Third, new regionalism theory contextualizes Turkey’s integration efforts within broader regional and global economic networks, illustrating how regional organizations can influence domestic trajectories and promote structural convergence. Together, these frameworks explain how Turkey’s developmental state strategies were reinforced and shaped by EU conditionalities, creating a dynamic interaction between domestic policy-making and external incentives that underpins Turkey’s emergence as an economic power.
Discussion
Turkey’s economic transformation demonstrates the synergistic effects of domestic reforms and external incentives. EU conditionalities functioned as both a roadmap and a catalyst for structural change, guiding policy decisions across key sectors. Trade liberalization facilitated the integration of Turkish markets into global networks, enhancing export capacity and competitiveness. Privatization and regulatory reforms improved efficiency in previously state-dominated sectors, while measures to attract foreign investment strengthened capital inflows and technological transfer. Institutional reforms aligned domestic governance structures with international norms, fostering policy coherence and enhancing investor confidence. These processes collectively enabled Turkey to diversify its economic base, reduce dependency on state-led interventions, and develop a more resilient, export-oriented economy. While full EU membership has not been realized, the adherence to conditionalities has effectively embedded EU-inspired standards into Turkey’s economic governance, demonstrating that external incentives can shape domestic trajectories even in the absence of formal institutional inclusion. This experience highlights the importance of strategic engagement with regional institutions, illustrating how conditionality mechanisms can serve as drivers of reform and modernization. It also underscores the interplay between domestic political will and external pressures, showing that sustainable development requires a combination of internal commitment and alignment with external standards. The Turkish case provides valuable lessons for other developing countries seeking to leverage regional and international frameworks to accelerate structural reforms, improve competitiveness, and enhance global integration. By linking conditionality compliance to measurable policy outcomes, the study illustrates the potential of institutionalized external influence to complement domestic developmental strategies, ultimately reinforcing Turkey’s position as an emerging economic power within a complex global landscape.
Conclusion
The study confirms that EU economic conditionalities have played a decisive role in Turkey’s emergence as an economic power. Although formal EU membership has not been achieved, Turkey’s compliance with conditionality requirements fostered structural reforms, institutional strengthening, and economic modernization. Conditionalities incentivized liberalization of trade, privatization, investment promotion, and the enhancement of governance frameworks, facilitating integration into global economic networks. The Turkish experience highlights the dynamic interaction between domestic developmental strategies and external institutional pressures, demonstrating that strategic engagement with regional organizations can accelerate reforms and elevate a country’s international economic status. Furthermore, the findings illustrate that external conditionalities can serve as effective mechanisms for promoting long-term sustainable growth, even when formal institutional recognition is absent. For policymakers in developing countries, the Turkish case underscores the importance of leveraging external frameworks to guide domestic reform, optimize policy outcomes, and strengthen global competitiveness. Ultimately, Turkey’s trajectory illustrates that a proactive developmental state, in conjunction with carefully navigated external incentives, can successfully transform national economies, enhance institutional capacity, and establish a robust foundation for emerging economic power status. The study emphasizes that strategic alignment with regional and international standards is not merely an administrative procedure but a central driver of economic development, offering critical insights for countries pursuing similar pathways of structural transformation and integration into the global economy.