پژوهش های روابط بین الملل

پژوهش های روابط بین الملل

چرایی نتایج متفاوت منازعه قدرت درسوریه پس از بهار عربی: از جنگ داخلی تا سقوط حکومت بشار اسد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار علوم سیاسی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت. ایران.
2 دانشجوی دکتری مطالعات منطقه ای، گرایش خاورمیانه، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران. ایران
چکیده
با شکل‌گیری بهار عربی در تونس و سرایت آن به جهان عرب، سوریه نیز در مارس 2011 دستخوش موج اعتراضاتی شد که به سرعت به جنگ داخلی منجر گشت. اگرچه اسد پس از 2016 در عرصه میدانی موفقیتهای روزافزونی را به دست آورد، اما در اواخر دسامبر 2024 پیشروی معارضان و سقوط سریع اسد بسیاری از محققان را شگفت‌زده نمود. این پژوهش به دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش است که جنگ داخلی درازمدت در سوریه و متعاقبا سقوط ناگهانی حکومت سوریه را چگونه می‌توان تبیین کرد؟ برای پاسخ به پرسش فوق، از رویکرد گلدستون استفاده شده و عوامل موثر بر شکل‌گیری جنگ داخلی و متعاقبا سقوط حکومت اسد مورد بررسی قرار می‌گیرند. یافته‌های پژوهش حاکی از آن است که چندپارگی اجتماعی و حمایت برخی لایه‌های اجتماعی از حکومت اسد، پایداری هسته اصلی ارتش سوریه علی‌رغم برخی ریزشها، و همچنین حمایت منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی از دو طرف منازعه نقش پررنگی در تداوم جنگ داخلی در سوریه داشت. البته حامیان منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی حکومت سوریه که باعث پیشروی‌های چشمگیر حکومت پس از سال 2016 شدند، مهمترین نقش را در عدم سقوط حکومت اسد در بحبوحه جنگ داخلی ایفا نمود. از سوی دیگر، سیر قهقرایی مشروعیت و حمایت از اسد حتی در میان اقلیتها که متاثر از فساد و بحرانهای اقتصادی بود، در کنار فرسایش شدید توان و انگیزه ارتش و در نهایت تغییر موازنه قدرت منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی به ضرر حکومت سوریه، باعث فروپاشی سریع حکومت اسد شدند. روش پژوهش در این مقاله تبیینی و روش جمع آوری داده‌ها کتابخانه‌ای است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The reasons behind the different outcomes of power struggle in Syria after the Arab Spring: From the civil war to the fall of the Assad’s regime

نویسندگان English

Seyed Amir Niakooee 1
Seyed Hossein Mousavi Kordmiri 2
1 Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.
2 PhD Student in Regional Studies, Middle East Orientation, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran. Iran.
چکیده English

With the uprisings in Tunisia and its spread to Arab world, Syria underwent a wave of protests in 2011, which quickly led to a civil war. Although Assad gained increasing success on the ground after 2016, the advance of the opposition and the rapid fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 surprised many researchers. This research seeks to answer the question: how can the civil war in Syria and subsequently the fall of the Syrian government be explained? To answer the question, Goldstone's approach is used and the factors affecting the civil war and the fall of the regime are analyzed. The findings indicate that social fragmentation and the support of some social layers for the regime, the stability of the main core of the army despite of some defections, and the regional and international support of both sides of the conflict played a prominent role in the continuation of the civil war. However, the regional and international supporters of the Syrian government played the most important role in preventing the fall of the regime in the civil war. On the other hand, the regressive course of support for Assad among the minorities who were affected by corruption and economic crises, along with the severe erosion of the army and finally the change of the balance of regional and international power in favor of the opposition caused the rapid collapse of the Syrian government. The research method is explanatory and the method of data collection is a library method.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

civil war
regime change
Army
regional actors
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